383
AXNT20 KNHC 301046
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has recently moved
offshore the coast of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it
reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico
by this evening. The low will rapidly deepen through Sat as it
moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as
it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in
another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support
winds to gale-force near Veracruz tonight into early on Sat, and
across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to
very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas
will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high
pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will stall this morning over the
NW forecast waters, then lift back N of the area through late
this afternoon ahead of a complex low pressure system that tracks
NE just offshore the Carolina coast. This system will send an
unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast
Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is
forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun,
becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of
westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about
23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before
lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach
from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to
eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall
from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake
of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N
and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week.
Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and
prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.
Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record
breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week
in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures
are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and
Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami
Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml , for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 02N20W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W to 01N40W and to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of
the ITCZ between 23W-33W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning expected to begin late tonight.
High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N84W.
It related gradient is allowing for moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas across the basin. Overnight scatterometer
satellite data passes reveal fairly light winds over most the
basin. A cold front has recently moved into the NW Gulf from the
southwest Louisiana coast to just offshore the Texas coast. A
trough is analyzed south of the front from 27N97W to 22N97W and
to just offshore Veracruz. Broken to overcast low stratus type
clouds and patches of fog are evident south of 28N and west of
94W. Isolated showers are possible in this area of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the cold front that recently moved to just
offshore the Texas coast will be followed by fresh to strong NW
to N winds and building seas as it reaches from Panama City,
Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will
rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western
Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the
southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic
air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf
Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the
basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E
across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the
northern Gulf following the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A shearline is analyzed from the Windward Passage to just
northwest of Jamaica and continues to 17N80W and to just north of
northern Panama near 10N82W. Isolated showers are possible
near the shearline. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are found
south of 19N and in the lee of Cuba. Seas behind the shearline are
slight to moderate. Fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft are over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are over he north-central and eastern
sections of the sea as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite
data passes over those areas of the sea. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present.
For the forecast, a unusually strong cold front is forecast to
move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and move
southeastward merging with the remnants of the shearline from
eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The cold front will
reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia
Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to
northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds
and rough seas are expected behind this front.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for a portion of the western Atlantic. It is expected to
begin on Sat afternoon.
A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 24N60W and to northwest
Haiti. A trough is out ahead of the front along a position from
23N54W to the northeast Caribbean near 17N65W. Broken to overcast
low and mid-level clouds with possible embedded isolated showers
are noted south of 26N between 64W and 73W. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates much of the SW N Atlantic, supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft south of 25N and
west of the aforementioned front. Moderate to locally strong W-NW
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are north of 28N and west of the
aforementioned front to 75W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of
10 to 12 ft are north of 27N and east of the front to 38W.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge centered over the NE Atlantic that extends
southeastward to Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west
of 35W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas are
occurring from 13N to 25N and east of 35W. Large northerly swell
spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure
well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the
Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between
northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and
lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low
pressure system moving into the Carolina coast. This system will
send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the
northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low
pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat
through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area
of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of
about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening,
before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to
reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to
eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from
bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the
front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of
the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should
monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute
avoidance plans from these conditions.
$$
Aguirre
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)