ACUS48 KWNS 301001
SWOD48
SPC AC 301000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will continue throughout the Day 4 to 8
period across much of the nation, as a series of shortwave troughs
move southeastward through the flow. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Wednesday across
parts of the Southeast as a trough moves eastward into the eastern
U.S. Weak moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to keep
the stronger instability over the northern Gulf of America. For this
reason, a severe threat is not forecast with this system. Late in
the week, a cold and dry airmass will likely make thunderstorms
unfavorable across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 01/30/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 310959
SWOD48
SPC AC 310958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of
the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and
Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying
cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast.
However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit
severe potential.

Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/31/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 010929
SWOD48
SPC AC 010928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across
the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While
isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it
overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited
moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter,
strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys
will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and
western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry,
offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 020936
SWOD48
SPC AC 020934

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an
upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of
the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance
depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on
Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and
eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of
this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing,
evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains
and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current
indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of
the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 02/02/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 030940
SWOD48
SPC AC 030939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry,
offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least
Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will
be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance
depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across
the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern
Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are
that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the
CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe
potential.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 040945
SWOD48
SPC AC 040944

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough
advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains
vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall
evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the
unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and
weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.

..Weinman.. 02/04/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 060752
SWOD48
SPC AC 060750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over
northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress
eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day
6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will
support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture
northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states
through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is
possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited
by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.

By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the
south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from
parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level
flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over
portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will
develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into
Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be
possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model
run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture
return.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 070853
SWOD48
SPC AC 070851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Gulf Coast States...

An upper shortwave trough embedded within broader upper ridging
across the eastern half of the U.S., will move across the Gulf Coast
states Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. Modified Gulf moisture (50s to near 60 F
dewpoints) will overspread portions of the south-central and
southeast CONUS during this time. The upper trough is expected to
weaken as it moves east, and destabilization is expected to remain
meager. While some thunderstorm potential could emerge, severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat - Southern States...

Another upper trough is forecast to move across the Southwest on Day
6/Thu, and continue eastward across the Southeast through Day 8/Sun. Quasi-zonal flow/weak upper riding will persist downstream from this
feature across the southern Plains into the Southeast, allowing for
some degree of modified Gulf moisture to develop near the Gulf Coast
vicinity. However, forecast guidance varies in the strength of the
developing upper trough, and with regards to potential moisture
return across the south-central/southeast states. Some increase in
thunderstorm potential may develop by the end of the period across
the region, but severe potential appears low/uncertain given large
spread among guidance.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 080752
SWOD48
SPC AC 080751

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of
the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves
across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across
the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling
aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is
expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.

Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend.
However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across
the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper
trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern
Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the
southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow
over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at
least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As
the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the
Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing
thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing
boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the
upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this
system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and
ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 090926
SWOD48
SPC AC 090925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX
to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this
period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and
Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to
timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints
will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.

Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the
Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf
Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML
guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the
current forecast strength and track of the associated surface
cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end
potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic
environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes
15 percent severe delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 100903
SWOD48
SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Fri-Sun -- TX into the Southeast...

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest
into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday,
southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the
trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western
TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture
(upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central
to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model
spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression
of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some
guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further
north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at
least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer
moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer
southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening
through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS
Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall
severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a
somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this
early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 110931
SWOD48
SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun -- Texas to the Southeast...

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day
4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through
Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer
moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a
surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will
deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before
moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front,
first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday
night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and
Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end
severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak
destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector.
However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is
unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement
of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt
trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary,
training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These
uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed...

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern
U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from
the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the
period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive
upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing
over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond
Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 131000
SWOD48
SPC AC 130959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
It appears that a blocking high/ridge may be maintained across the
southern mid-latitude east central Pacific (roughly near 150W
longitude) through next week. Downstream, the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high is forecast across the Gulf
Basin through Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity by the end of next week.
However, developments within the branching westerlies across and
inland of the Pacific coast remain more unclear, particularly
subsequent to some initial consolidation of mid-level troughing near
the U.S. Pacific coast by early next week.

Shorter wavelength perturbations emerging from this cyclonic regime
are generally forecast to progress across and east-northeast of the
Rockies, contributing to periodic lee cyclogenesis. The timing of
potentially stronger cyclogenesis has varied within and among the
various model output, including one possible developing cyclone
across the central Great Plains into portions of the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley during the early into middle portion of next week.
Regardless of the strength, however, guidance has been consistent
indicating that limited warm sector boundary-layer moisture return
will probably tend to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.

Subsequent, renewed (potentially strong) surface cyclogenesis
appears possible to the lee of the Rockies later next week. Model
spread by that time is notable, but an increasing moist southerly
return flow off the Gulf does appear probable, around the western
flank of the subtropical ridge.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 140957
SWOD48
SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability
concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream
developments inland and across North America, through this period.
Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant
perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be
accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the
mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,
before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be
accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,
conditionally supportive of organized convective development given
sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change
from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an
initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture
return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle
of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic
southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend
across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid
Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent
subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean
vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this
regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf
boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return
flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in
potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and
consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range
guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 141001
SWOD48
SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability
concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the
mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream
developments inland and across North America, through this period.
Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant
perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be
accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the
mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley,
before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be
accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear,
conditionally supportive of organized convective development given
sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change
from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an
initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture
return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle
of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic
southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend
across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid
Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent
subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean
vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this
regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf
boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return
flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in
potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and
consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range
guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 161002
SWOD48
SPC AC 161000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,
centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the
period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great
Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable,
latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night
concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the
vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It
now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as
high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may
advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower
Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though
still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe
thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient
deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized
convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce
tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to
severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.

It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the
Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to
the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid
Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may
continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid
Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to
severe weather potential remains unclear.

By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective
potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper
ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic
Seaboard.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 151002
SWOD48
SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale
troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset
of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of
the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend.
It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a
series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However,
given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to
the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface
cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability
with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater
certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by
Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes
region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf
boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support
limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the
middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By
Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture
surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing
convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains
unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may
commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great
Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to
emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that
renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that
convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side
of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather
potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 170952
SWOD48
SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an
initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region
at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a
supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the
south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson
Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of
the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued,
with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic
through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern
periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave
perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing
progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of
the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it
could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps
upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could
pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While
severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than
15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could
change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week
appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the
Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent
regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface
ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies,
through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and
stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential
through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 180957
SWOD48
SPC AC 180956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification
of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of
shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may
continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be
accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one
cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern
Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday.
However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms,
might remain offshore.

At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may
continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday,
with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi
Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard
Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold
surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the
Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will
suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.

While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of
strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone
across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast
early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across
inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to
minimize this potential.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190950
SWOD48
SPC AC 190948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to
expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models
indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the
southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next
week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely
to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the
western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward
through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the
blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad
offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact,
and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through
the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally
west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next
week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across
the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of
the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern
U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it
appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow
will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe
storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190956
SWOD48
SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to
expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models
indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the
southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next
week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely
to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the
western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward
through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the
blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific
will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad
offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact,
and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through
the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally
west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next
week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across
the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of
the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern
U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it
appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow
will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe
storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 200914
SWOD48
SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air
pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the
eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow
regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest
flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States.
This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold
front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week.
However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front
should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf.
This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will
limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the
forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 210932
SWOD48
SPC AC 210931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain
across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface
anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states
suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the
anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly
winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.

Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains
into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface
cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of
the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any,
severe potential as the front moves through.

The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern
Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest
moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into
Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble
guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through
the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once
again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and
poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 221000
SWOD48
SPC AC 220958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the
forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday -- Days 4 and 5). This wave
will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on
Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio
Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf
moisture northward across much of the Southeast.

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday
along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of
the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level
wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist
boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong
convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced
ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few
strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent
lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low
to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent
forecasts.

This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast
by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should
wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes
hold and begins to advect moisture northward.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 230838
SWOD48
SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as
broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period.
Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move
across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these
troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days
4 and 5).

A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley
early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale
ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low
will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through
much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will
result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of
this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy
profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow
band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved
low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a
few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two
with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although
confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection
will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where
damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce
unconditional 15% severe probabilities.

In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be
rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the
northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly
return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.

..Marsh.. 02/23/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 240947
SWOD48
SPC AC 240946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as
the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a
departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern
Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable
low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place
until late this weekend (Sunday -- Day 6) when it washes out and
redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition
of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest
flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).

By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge
will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops
and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The
position and evolution of the closed low should place modest
southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast
period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee
trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.

Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with
the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the
moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting
placement of any precipitation potential -- including thunderstorms.
In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition
favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential
across the central US just beyond this forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 250954
SWOD48
SPC AC 250953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the
overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough
and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into
the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the
Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the
overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.

This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as
southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold
front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas
on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members
suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.

By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary
should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow
low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central
Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture
advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within
the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential
for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for
unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests
thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions
of the central US just beyond this forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 251040
SWOD48
SPC AC 251039

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the
overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough
and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into
the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the
Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the
overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.

This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as
southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold
front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas
on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members
suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.

By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary
should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow
low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central
Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture
advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within
the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential
for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for
unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests
thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions
of the central US just beyond this forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 260958
SWOD48
SPC AC 260956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will
take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest
shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West.
Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it
remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the
period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern
extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3.
Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low
confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture
recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the
upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from
northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the
shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit
the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble
guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an
amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the
timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains
remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains
early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a
northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this
trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of
the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach
the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more
variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second
trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough,
with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave
troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and
magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing
low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated
cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat
should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the
specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent
of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of
the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the
details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any
specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and
Thursday at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 271001
SWOD48
SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on
Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern
U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central
states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and
Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible
each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In
areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may
develop.

...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and
central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist
airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern
Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms
appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south
across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is
evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat
during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail
and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a
severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist
concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves
across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be
adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward
into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into
the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in
place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable
airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface
temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is
uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some
solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the
south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level
trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature,
thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the
southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is
forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance
exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is
substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe
threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 280954
SWOD48
SPC AC 280952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert
Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern
Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a
moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the
Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near
the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the
day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in
the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak
is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the
afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms.
Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be
possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run,
suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was
previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has
been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward
into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will
be possible near the front during the day into the evening.
Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat
limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is
forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response,
moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as
moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains.
Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass
Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into
parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development
should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist
airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks.
Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is
considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model
solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly
from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist
airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where
scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a
severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high
concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 011001
SWOD48
SPC AC 010959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave
trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass
resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains.
Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to
northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate
instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development
appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid
afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support
a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind
gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid
Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves
through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should
remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale
ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen
the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most
likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be
in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central
U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern
states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great
Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow.
Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability
will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that
scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be
supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be
associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting
scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist
sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be
maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few
tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast
to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances
quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower
Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of
the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the
spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this
area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 020959
SWOD48
SPC AC 020958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly
across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located
in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is
forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be
mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas
north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is
forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells
with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be
possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts
of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects
northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon
from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri
Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the
afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind
damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and
bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will
persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across
the region.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward
across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front,
the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest
that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition,
moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern
edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe
threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from
west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the
western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday
afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible.
Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any
potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This
scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon.
However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 030954
SWOD48
SPC AC 030952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
A strong upper-level system is forecast to eject northeastward into
the central High Plains on Friday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot
mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the trough. At the
surface, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from
central and east Texas northward into the lower Missouri Valley.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
will support scattered convective initiation to the west of the
moist axis. Storms are expected to grow upscale in the mid to late
afternoon, moving eastward toward an axis of strong low-level flow.
Moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates
will be favorable for supercells. Supercells should be capable of
producing tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts. The greatest
potential is forecast from near the Red River in north Texas north-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, where a 30 percent contour has been added. A
severe threat is also forecast northeastward into parts of the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley, where strong deep-layer shear and
sufficient low-level moisture will be in place for a severe threat.

On Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move through the north-central U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward into the
Ark-La-Tex, mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front
during the day as surface temperatures warm. It appears that a
marginal severe threat will develop during the mid to late afternoon
over much of the northwestern edge of the moist sector from the
Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the Ohio Valley.

...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
On Sunday in the mid-levels, a 90 to 110 knot jet is forecast to
move into the northern U.S., as westerly flow remains over much of
the east-central U.S. A front is forecast to become quasi-stationary
from the Ozarks eastward into the southern Appalachians. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat may develop to
the south of the front during the afternoon.

On Monday and Tuesday, moisture advection is forecast to take place
from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, as mid-level flow
again becomes southwesterly. Moisture and instability should be
favorable for isolated severe storms Monday afternoon in areas that
heat up sufficiently. On Tuesday, models forecast a strong
upper-level system to eject northeastward into the south-central
U.S. If this scenario works out, a greater severe threat appears
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over the southern and central
Plains. However, uncertainty is considerable at this range in the
forecast period due to a relatively wide spread in the model
guidance.

..Broyles.. 03/03/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 040958
SWOD48
SPC AC 040956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
On Saturday at mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward across the north-central U.S., as flow remains
southwesterly from the southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. A
cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the southern
Plains, Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be mostly in the 60s F
with pockets of moderate instability developing in the afternoon.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward into the moist airmass. Although an isolated severe
threat will be likely in some areas, uncertainty is considerable
concerning the area with the greatest severe threat. The current
thinking is that the severe threat will be concentrated in two
areas, with one being from south-central Texas northeastward into
northern Louisiana, and a second being located in the Ohio Valley. A
15 percent area may need to be added in either of these two areas in
later outlooks.

On Sunday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast along the
western Gulf Coast. Isolated storms associated with a marginal
severe threat could develop in the afternoon. Large-scale ascent
will be limited which should keep any severe potential localized.

...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to continue on Monday
across much of the central and eastern U.S. Low-level moisture
return is forecast to take place over the southern and central
Plains, where the models suggest moderate instability will be
possible by afternoon. As a low-level jet strengthens during the
afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should
develop in areas that heat up sufficiently. A severe threat would be
possible. However, spatial uncertainty exists concerning where any
severe threat will be the greatest.

On Tuesday, model forecasts are in general agreement, moving an
upper-level trough northeastward into the southern High Plains. An
associated mid-level jet is forecast to eject northeastward ahead of
the system. Model forecasts suggest that the airmass ahead of the
trough will become moderately unstable by Tuesday afternoon. This
combined with strong large-scale ascent should support scattered
severe storms in the afternoon and evening. The favored severe
threat area is expected from parts of the southern and central
Plains eastward into the Ozarks.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move across the south-central U.S., as a cold front advances eastward into the
Southeast. A severe threat may again develop Wednesday afternoon as
the airmass ahead of the front becomes unstable. However, there is
considerable model spread concerning the timing of features at this
extended range.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 050938
SWOD48
SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect
northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this
airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place.
Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days,
isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest
potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast
to be maximized.

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across
northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much
of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast
over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent
associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over
the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the
progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow
is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This
suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm
development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is
expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the
upper-level trough approaches.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is
forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the
system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon.
Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a
severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing
of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the
system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday,
then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also
develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western
Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be
possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front
passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

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