ACUS11 KWNS 060135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060135=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 060135Z - 060300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for large hail, and perhaps
an isolated tornado, over the next 1-2 hours. Local watch extensions
and potentially a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions
of northern Oklahoma into central Kansas over the past hour,
including a stronger storm within the northern portions of WW0013.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the persistence of these storms
as they progress northeastward given rather weak synoptic-scale
forcing. Should storms become better established along and north of
a surface frontal boundary, however, they will pose a risk for large
hail given MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of
30-40 kts amidst steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km. As the
surface warm front lifts farther north, increasing low-level
moisture (dewpoints approaching 60 F along the KS/OK border) coupled
with a strengthening low-level jet sampled by regional VWPs may
support the potential for an isolated tornado with any surface-based
storms along and south of the surface boundary. Trends will continue
to be monitored, and local watch extensions or perhaps a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

..Chalmers/Moore/Hart.. 03/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PkxzM7ImaF_gvSy-6tOkxZgcdPkxg0pBBaMaqmIgmDOwpjpC5RZkBJuBZUrVrUQoIZ41YIZT= MXseRMCsl0UycllTSE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37499892 37979855 38469816 38949762 39319708 39409634
39159605 38579600 38079610 37699635 37179680 36629724
36229766 35929809 35769859 35769905 35999929 36649934
36929925 37099916 37259910 37499892=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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