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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0140

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, March 06, 2026 00:46:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 060046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060045=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-060245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0140
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0645 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle into
    western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

    Valid 060045Z - 060245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk for all severe hazards over
    the next 1-2 hours as they progress east/northeastward across the
    eastern Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...Developing thunderstorms have struggled to become
    better established across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle
    over the past hour amidst residual capping and weak synoptic-scale
    forcing. While it remains unclear as to how many supercells will
    develop, the latest guidance and radar observations continue to
    suggest that at least a couple of supercells will become better
    established over the coming 1-2 hours as mid-level capping continues
    to erode. An unstable environment characterized by MLCAPE of
    1500-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts will then
    support a risk of all severe hazards. Steep mid-level lapse rates
    exceeding 7.5 C/km and an initial discrete storm mode will support
    the potential for large hail to 3" in diameter. With time, a
    strengthening low-level jet is expected to yielding enlarged
    low-level hodographs, which would bring an increased tornado threat
    into the early overnight hours.

    ..Chalmers/Moore.. 03/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6T1EYsmrxymTB4idzy3cOyDW0wGwgc5dBlr_xCNjpAkntgt8EyU43H-_DkR8ABJ8hdgDe14mM= 7379tcjUE9kQZk_8_o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35269867 34909874 34639881 34449909 34349948 34309986
    34270039 34260084 34400117 34700149 35050148 35520086
    35900034 36079981 36019912 35709873 35269867=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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