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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0139

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 05, 2026 21:08:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 052108
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052108=20
    TXZ000-052315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0139
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

    Areas affected...Davis Mountains into the Permian Basin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 052108Z - 052315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail (up to 2 in.) and severe wind gusts are
    possible with isolated severe storms into the early evening. Lack of
    greater forcing/storm coverage should preclude a watch this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop within the Davis
    Mountains this afternoon as dryline slowly mixes eastward. Overall
    forcing for ascent within the Permian Basin region is weak and
    expected to remain so through the afternoon into the evening. A
    storm or two initiating/maturing off of the terrain and/or dryline
    will be possible. Effective shear will be weak initially, but should
    increase with time as the synoptic trough approaches the southern
    High Plains. Should storms initiate/sustain, large hail (perhaps to
    2 in.) and severe wind gusts would be possible. The tornado risk is
    expected to remain low given modest dewpoints and generally weak
    low-level shear. If an isolated storm can last into early evening,
    an increase in the low-level jet would enlarge hodographs, some
    increase in tornado potential would occur. Such a scenario is
    uncertain, however.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8G2vEh313NXMQ7aRpto7AApfufU0EUC0cWm_4Iev6ReR7J0z8SVpLTgq9Wp4_uSwIRzgvSy4K= tG6CSAwnVyGuhqZDNA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30810264 31220290 32690242 32840230 32920160 32710094
    32000099 30850164 30560206 30810264=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)