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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0138

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, March 05, 2026 20:47:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 052047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052047=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-052315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0138
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains into
    southwestern OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 052047Z - 052315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of supercells capable of all hazards will
    increase between 22-00Z, and continue into tonight. A watch will
    likely be needed for parts of the area within the next couple hours.

    DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery depicts gradually
    deepening boundary-layer cumulus developing over parts of the TX
    South Plains -- where steepening low-level lapse rates are impinging
    on sheltered/increasing boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s
    dewpoints). As diurnal heating and low-level warm advection continue
    in this corridor, antecedent inhibition at the base of the EML
    should erode and support convective initiation in the 22-00Z time
    frame. While uncertain, additional storm development is also
    possible within zones of subtle differential heating farther
    northeast in the TX Panhandle, where the low-level warm advection is
    a bit stronger.=20

    Steep midlevel lapse rates and the aforementioned moisture will
    contribute to moderate surface-based buoyancy, which combined with=20
    around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor discrete/semi-discrete
    supercells -- given generally weak forcing for ascent. Initial
    storms will pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts, though a
    gradually strengthening low-level jet and expanding low-level
    hodographs will lead to an increasing tornado risk into this
    evening. The weak forcing for ascent and lingering inhibition does
    cast uncertainty on overall timing/evolution of the severe risk,
    though current thinking is that a watch will likely be needed within
    the next couple hours.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7t7o77S84509EINclYjuXEGScy7koi4wNEgDF4MY1Uwtb2e-uGw0jo4zgUdheKK0snUGuYEzW= kA5D2UauFZYotbIMHk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33880224 34420209 35270164 35720117 35980060 36019995
    35869933 35419896 34629889 33929924 32950029 32790092
    32910168 33280210 33880224=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)