ACUS11 KWNS 050451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050451=20
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-050645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...12...

Valid 050451Z - 050645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11, 12
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue into the early
morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing late this evening from
near the OK/AR border into parts of the Lower Ohio Valley, in
advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the
Lower Missouri Valley. A strengthening low-level jet (observed on
recent VWPs from KLZK and KNQA) will sustain convection into the
overnight hours from northern AR/southern MO into parts of southern
IL/IN and western KY. Much of this convection will remain north of
an outflow-reinforced cold front, where modest elevated buoyancy and
sufficient effective shear will continue to support an isolated hail
threat. Convection near/south of the front (such as the supercell in
far southeast OK and the cluster of storms in far southern IL) may
remain near-surface based into the early morning, and pose a threat
of isolated hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a brief tornado
(given the favorable low-level SRH).=20

Some loosely organized upscale growth remains possible with time,
though ongoing trends and most short-term guidance suggest that the
severe threat will tend to remain isolated into the early morning.
WW 11 and WW 12 are scheduled to expire at 05Z, and new watch
issuance appears unlikely, unless an uptick in storm organization
and intensity is observed.

..Dean/Hart.. 03/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4d99-Sn1cf39Yf1wZZKtsFKqWd0YCPqF67LtScQQwlsBIOnkt0d7uL4oQ2_x5zgcOs3uEFp0G= f1BnBSC5U4EOp1KKfg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

LAT...LON 36319365 36719280 37089145 37548954 37938803 38218656
37168632 35769080 35289156 34639272 34269382 34289459
34849447 36319365=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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