ACUS11 KWNS 050233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050233=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

Valid 050233Z - 050400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing mid-level ascent will overspread portions of
southern Missouri and northern Arkansas over the next 1-2 hours
ahead of an approaching shortwave mid-level trough. This upper-level
forcing coupled with a strengthening southerly low-level jet could
support a continuing severe weather threat over the next few hours,
with hail/wind the primary hazards. WW0011 will be locally extended
across portions of northern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across eastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas will progress northeastward over the next 1-2
hours within a warm sector characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Increased low-level hodograph
curvature owing to a strengthening, southerly low-level jet (as
sampled by regional VWPs) and steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7
C/km) could support a continuing threat for large hail and perhaps a
tornado or two. With time, expected upscale growth of this
convection into one or more linear segments may foster an increasing
threat for damaging wind gusts. Simultaneously, the strengthening
low-level jet will support increasing convective coverage along and
north of a surface frontal boundary currently analyzed across
southern Missouri. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg amidst steep mid-level
lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts may
support a continuing threat for large hail north of this boundary.
Given the potential for the continuing severe threat, WW0011 will be
locally extended across portions of northern Arkansas.

..Chalmers/Lyons/Hart.. 03/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8B8_excva6kpD9wOoyXkRW4heDmAIGM7Dp9eeazftl9Fb1Of0YNHkqFf_qIKD7Yy9UlAjkLdM= SRiRlepeH7Wgp5Kfqg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35209323 35339395 35769439 36239443 36719448 37019424
37429346 37669261 37839166 37789113 37599073 37339052
37069054 36599098 36129150 35749203 35379270 35209323=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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