ACUS11 KWNS 050043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050043=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-050245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...North TX into eastern OK and western AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12...

Valid 050043Z - 050245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 12
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado will continue through mid evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing from north TX into eastern
OK early this evening, with occasional storm organization and
midlevel rotation noted with cells near the DFW Metroplex, and also
in the vicinity of a cold front between McAlester, OK and Fort
Smith, AR. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
(as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding) will continue to support
occasional supercells across the region this evening, with an
increasing coverage of storms expected in response to an approaching
midlevel shortwave trough and modest strengthening of the low-level
jet.=20

Cell interactions may tend to limit the longevity of any particular
cell, though slow storm motions and a tendency for backbuilding near
a composite outflow across north TX may continue to support a nearly
stationary storm cluster near the eastern DFW Metroplex. Farther
north, occasional splitting supercells may continue as convection
spreads from southeast OK into western AR.=20

Some hail and localized damaging-wind threat will continue to
accompany any sustained supercells this evening. A brief tornado
cannot be ruled out, especially if any surface-based supercells can
persist later into the evening, when a modest strengthening of
low-level shear/SRH is expected. However, there may continue to be a
tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow or the slow-moving
cold front.

..Dean.. 03/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6G48JAEVuBnuLhdEdvmVasTaCYv__D36wuyO9FwrJeQRwzzxTrGTGnTxeffbvFxomwd1Jti6m= G7-WHDYiqEIo-oiYYc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32499605 32199670 31579792 31819877 34209661 35609542
36119472 36299433 36109357 34859396 33789470 32909565
32499605=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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