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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0134

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, March 04, 2026 23:30:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 042330
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042330=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0134
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks into the lower Ohio River
    Valley

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

    Valid 042330Z - 050130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat for all hazards continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #11 until 0300 UTC, with the primary threat for
    large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

    DISCUSSION...MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg coupled with effective bulk
    shear of 30-40 kts and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of
    around 7 C/km will continue to favor a threat for severe hail across
    WW0011, primarily across portions of southern Missouri and northern
    Arkansas where an ongoing, isolated supercell may persist for at
    least another 1-2 hours. Increasing low-level flow is also expected
    to yield a modest increase to low-level hodograph curvature over the
    next few hours. With additional development across the southwestern
    portions of the Watch area possible, this will support at least some
    potential for an isolated tornado in addition to the continuing
    hail/wind threats, particularly where developing storms are able to
    maintain a more discrete storm mode.

    Farther northeast, a cluster of ongoing thunderstorms continues
    across portions of southern Illinois/Indiana along and north of the
    surface boundary. While instability and mid-level lapse rates are
    more limited (approximately 500 J/kg MUCAPE and 6 C/km,
    respectively, per latest mesoanalysis), modest warm air advection
    within the 925-850 mb layer atop the frontal boundary coupled with
    effective bulk shear around 30 knots will continue to support the
    risk for isolated severe hail over the next couple of hours. A
    downstream watch is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Chalmers/Lyons.. 03/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8GXC0soUTpxm1eoN4VA0m9k_mxmjhwp_lwndkoTwLbQCErhuVD57ZJrwpC-zQluNdJvLSkufF= S_Yt8Wofe0PFnO5wtQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36149200 36409249 36859278 37379209 38668902 39068772
    39128726 39078658 38828613 38458614 38028653 37518728
    36898830 36009008 36149200=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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