ACUS11 KWNS 042101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042101=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Areas affected...Parts of north/northeast Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042101Z - 050000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible this afternoon into the
evening, with the primary concerns being damaging gusts and severe
hail. A watch may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows continued
diurnal heating/destabilization of a relatively moist air mass
(middle/upper 60s dewpoints) extending from parts of north/northeast
TX toward the Red River. Despite weak large-scale forcing for
ascent, continued erosion of inhibition at the base of the EML (see
latest DAL ACARS soundings) is promoting isolated convective
initiation within zones of differential heating and low-level
confluence. Current thinking is that this trend will continue
through the afternoon, with mainly isolated storm coverage. While
modest deep-layer shear (25-30-kt midlevel flow per FWS VWP) and the
weak large-scale ascent may limit storm organization in the
near-term, the destabilizing boundary layer and steep midlevel lapse
rates may still promote locally damaging gusts and sporadic severe
hail on an isolated basis this afternoon.

With time, a strengthening southerly low-level jet should favor
additional storm development and organization later this afternoon
into the evening, when the risk of damaging winds and severe hail
should increase. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the
area, though timing is uncertain.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7LPapxfPNGKWQaApnMDxSqyQQOz4Yo6rRdBMpnQAzMSvFy8KaLEd3VajKGr_O3CQR9EjAWf25= Z3isrgJf6mJU13jcQo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32359798 33259762 33959714 34289680 34469634 34479578
34309540 33969519 33369515 32439545 31559595 31239658
31239726 31469771 31829799 32359798=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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